Most of us form perceptions as we absorb the facts and draw our conclusions from the opinions of experts. We are influenced by the things that we read and hear in the media. Unfortunately, sometimes that information can be very misleading.
Like many of you, I’ve grown weary of listening to the doom and gloom that airs on the cable news networks. While some of the forecasts and predictions may ultimately prove true, our nation and its economy are in uncharted waters and no one knows the outcome. Very few of the pundits consistently predict the future with any real accuracy. But my real frustration hits a little closer to home.
Week after week, we’re being inundated with headlines depicting the dismal condition of the real estate market. But the headline and related article rarely tell the real story. Case in point, a Wednesday headline in the business section of a local Rutherford County paper stated “Home prices post 18% drop in October.” The headline was misleading and inclined to lead the average reader to an inaccurate conclusion.
At best, the headline was an example of careless journalism. At its worst, it was an attempt to sensationalize the problems and instill fear into the general public. What were the facts as reported in the article? The 18% drop occurred over 12 months, not one month as the headline suggested. Furthermore, the cited index was from a study of 20 unidentified cities. Most likely, none of them were from Tennessee. Nationwide or local home prices did not drop 18% in October, not matter what the headline said.
Let’s consider a few additional observations. For more than a year, we’ve been subjected to a constant parade of articles and photos depicting residential real estate in a pessimistic light. Many have centered on foreclosures and the decline in home values. Have you taken the time to read more than the headline or photo caption? In a majority of the instances, the story relates to far away places – Las Vegas, California, Florida, Michigan and so on. While our local market is undeniably under stress and undergoing adjustments, we are not suffering to the extent that the national media depicts.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency, in its last quarterly report, indicated that prices have dropped year over year in only 104 of the 292 metropolitan areas it tracks. Only 19 metro areas have seen a decline in values over a five year period – mostly from economically devastated Michigan and now-deflated inland areas of California. In fact, some markets are actually appreciating. Where have you read this information recently?
Over the next few weeks we’ll take a closer look at the numbers as they relate to us in Rutherford County. While we are all impacted by the good and bad of the “global economy,” we still live in a micro world. Real estate has always been, and arguably still is, a local phenomenon. Until we meet again, use caution as you peruse the headlines. They seldom tell the real story.
Originally posted January 4, 2008